Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction, Picks & Odds | 01 Nov 2026

Patriots vs Dolphins Predictions

Best Bet

Dolphins +7 @ -120

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We’ve lined up a prediction which requires the Dolphins to keep close to the Patriots. We think that the line of +7 can be covered and you can secure -120.

Get our preferred Patriots vs Dolphins betting predictions, highlighting our Best Bet, Player Props, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Pick. Head further down the page to find the detailed evaluation of each play.

Patriots vs Dolphins Preview

The New England Patriots go up against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 17:25 on Sunday, November 1.

New England Patriots were defeated in their previous game. On the road, they suffered a 30-24 reverse against Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. The Patriots generated 380 yards, including 310 passing and 70 rushing yards. They moved the chains 20 times and produced 3 touchdowns.

Miami Dolphins have lost back-to-back at home. Their last game saw them land a 28-25 road victory at MetLife Stadium against New York Jets. The Dolphins finished with 360 total yards, breaking down to 204 passing and 156 rushing yards. The offense moved the chains 24 times and struck for 4 touchdowns.

H2H: 7 Fins Wins in Last 10 H2H Clashes

The Pats have claimed victories in the last two matchups against the Dolphins. At Hard Rock Stadium, the scoreline was 33-27 and then we saw 38-10 at Gillette Stadium. The Dolphins have won seven of the past 10 games that these teams have played.

Quarterbacks

Drake Maye

237.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Malik Willis

185.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Best Bet

We’re really sweet on the Dolphins putting up a fight in this NFL showdown and that compels us to bet the underdogs against the spread. You can get -120 when it comes to the +7 that is available.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction:

• The +7 line has been covered by Dolphins in 3 consecutive games.
• The +7 line has been covered by Dolphins in 15 of their last 20 games at home.
• The +7 line has been covered by Dolphins in 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -7 line hasn’t been covered by Patriots in 5 consecutive games on the road.
• The -7 line hasn’t been covered by Patriots in 17 of their last 20 games on the road.
• The -7 line hasn’t been covered by Patriots in 8 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The +7 line has been covered by Dolphins in 9 of their last 10 games against Patriots.

The NFL predictions at Sportsgambler.com are always guided by the latest team news, injury updates and overall form. Once we've reviewed that, we dive into the most relevant stats to confidently recommend every pick.

Fins +7 Probability

Based on the betting odds from the top sportsbooks, our pick has a 54.6% chance of winning. Taking all factors into consideration, our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. It is the reason why we are recommending this wager.

If you’re hunting for larger odds and feel confident your selection is going to perform well, then consider moving the line and land a bigger potential return.

Make smarter bets by exploring our bonus guide full of updated betting offers, free bets, and exciting new promotions.

Dolphins +7 @ -120 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Oct 30, 23:25). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Malik Willis Over 185.5 Passing Yards -114

You can place a bet on Malik Willis (Dolphins) at -114 to rack up over 185.5 passing yards. He looks capable of covering the line and that leads us to taking this QB Passing Yards bet.

Latest Malik Willis Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+230

First

+1200

Passing Yards

Over 185.5

-114

Under 185.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 33.5

-114

Under 33.5

-114

---

DeMario Douglas Over 40.5 Receiving Yards -114

You can place a bet on DeMario Douglas (Dolphins) at -114 to rack up over 40.5 receiving yards. We’re confident in taking him to cover the Player Receiving Yards line and bettors can place this bet with confidence.

Latest DeMario Douglas Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+220

First

+1100

Receiving Yards

Over 40.5

-114

Under 40.5

-114

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Patriots 27 - 23 Dolphins

We’ll throw a dart when it comes to the Pats claiming a 27-23 victory. This correct score prediction is available at monster odds and could be an entertaining wager to place.

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Patriots vs Dolphins Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Sportsbooks’ favorites New England Patriots are regarded as likeliest victors for this game and the -323 about them triumphing means a 76% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. Miami Dolphins are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +260.

There is a spread of 7 and total points has a line of 43.5. NFL fans regularly enjoy the opportunity to bet on the Totals. There’s the chance to back Under 43.5 at -115.

There are a wide range of game lines and team props when it comes to the National Football League and we recommend heading to the top betting apps to find the bet that matches your view on the matchup.

Moneyline

Patriots

-323

Dolphins

+260

Point Spread

Patriots -7

-102

Dolphins +7

-120

Total Points

Under 43.5

-115

Over 43.5

-105

Favorite Rhamondre Stevenson is priced at +470 to be the first player to score a touchdown. There’s also the opportunity to back him to score a TD at anytime at odds of -130.

Touchdown

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

First TD

+470

Anytime TD

-130

Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins)

First TD

+700

Anytime TD

+125

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

First TD

+750

Anytime TD

+135

A.J. Brown (Patriots)

First TD

+800

Anytime TD

+145

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+220

Malik Willis (Dolphins)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+230

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+310

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+290

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+330

Corey Kiner (Patriots)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+310

Drake Maye (Patriots)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+350

Eli Raridon (Patriots)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+330

Malik Washington (Dolphins)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+350

Caleb Douglas (Dolphins)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+400

Greg Dulcich (Dolphins)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+420

Jaylen Wright (Dolphins)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+550

Chris Bell (Dolphins)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+600

Kevin Coleman Jr. (Dolphins)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1400

Will Kacmarek (Dolphins)

First TD

+7500

Anytime TD

+1500

Kaytron Allen (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1900

Tanner Arkin (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Jalen Tolbert (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Cameron Latu (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Jared Wayne (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Seydou Traore (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Justin Joly (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

DJ Herman (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1900

Receiving Yards

A.J. Brown (Patriots)

Over 50.5

-114

Under 50.5

-114

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 45.5

-114

Under 45.5

-114

Malik Washington (Dolphins)

Over 41.5

-114

Under 41.5

-114

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

Over 40.5

-114

Under 40.5

-114

Caleb Douglas (Dolphins)

Over 39.5

-114

Under 39.5

-114

Greg Dulcich (Dolphins)

Over 29.5

-114

Under 29.5

-114

Eli Raridon (Patriots)

Over 24.5

-114

Under 24.5

-114

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

Over 24.5

-114

Under 24.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 23.5

-114

Under 23.5

-114

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

Over 21.5

-114

Under 21.5

-114

Chris Bell (Dolphins)

Over 18.5

-114

Under 18.5

-114

Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Will Kacmarek (Dolphins)

Over 1.5

+102

Under 1.5

-132

Rushing Yards

Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins)

Over 60.5

-114

Under 60.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 51.5

-114

Under 51.5

-114

Malik Willis (Dolphins)

Over 33.5

-114

Under 33.5

-114

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 24.5

-114

Under 24.5

-114

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 23.5

-114

Under 23.5

-114

Jaylen Wright (Dolphins)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Malik Washington (Dolphins)

Over 5.5

-102

Under 5.5

-128

Passing Yards

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 237.5

-114

Under 237.5

-114

Malik Willis (Dolphins)

Over 185.5

-114

Under 185.5

-114

Dolphins Have Six Defeats Across Their Last Ten Home Outings

The Dolphins are 4-6 in their last 10 home games, averaging 21.30 points scored and 25.80 points allowed.

The Pats own a 7-3 mark in their past 10 games away from home, averaging 23.40 points scored and 20.10 points allowed.

The Pats earned a 33-27 win against the Dolphins in the teams’ last meeting at Hard Rock Stadium. In the last 7 head-to-head matchups at Hard Rock Stadium, the Dolphins have notched five victories, while the Pats have recorded two.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O43.5	U43.5
Dolphins Home Stats		4-6	47.10	21.30	25.80	5	5
Patriots Away Stats		7-3	43.50	23.40	20.10	7	3

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O43.5 = Games Over 43.5 Points
• U43.5 = Games Under 43.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New England Patriots Stats

Miami Dolphins Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -7 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• -7 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +7 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• +7 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 40.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 43.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 43.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 43.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 21.10 pts and allowed 19.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 23.40 pts and allowed 20.10 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 44.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 44.00 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 43.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 43.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 16.40 pts and allowed 28.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 20.20 pts and allowed 23.80 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 341.00 Yds. Allowed 296.70 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 117.90 Yds. Allowed 93.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 223.10 Yds. Allowed 203.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.10 TD. Allowed 0.10 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.10. Allowed 17.60
• Total Turnovers: Committed 2.00. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.20. Committed by opponents 5.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 50.60 Yds. Gained 51.10 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 291.40 Yds. Allowed 360.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 118.90 Yds. Allowed 119.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 172.50 Yds. Allowed 240.90 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 3.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.10. Allowed 21.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.40. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.00. Committed by opponents 5.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 46.60 Yds. Gained 44.90 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 369.20 Yds. Allowed 309.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 122.80 Yds. Allowed 112.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 246.40 Yds. Allowed 196.90 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.80 TD. Allowed 2.30 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.50. Allowed 17.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.40. Committed by opponents 6.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 43.60 Yds. Gained 46.00 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 329.90 Yds. Allowed 362.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 148.70 Yds. Allowed 119.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 181.20 Yds. Allowed 243.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.10 TD. Allowed 2.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.30 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.30. Allowed 20.70
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.70. Committed by opponents 1.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.50. Committed by opponents 6.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 41.00 Yds. Gained 48.90 Yds

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