Steelers vs Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds | 20 Sep 2026

NFL Betting Preview: Steelers vs Patriots

The Pittsburgh Steelers face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, September 20.

Back the Patriots against the spread in order to get the best value. They should be able to cover an attractive -4.5 line at -120 when playing the Steelers.

A classic AFC matchup carries fresh intrigue with Aaron Rodgers leading Pittsburgh into Foxborough against Drake Maye and the reigning AFC champion Patriots. Mike McCarthy’s Steelers offense faces a Mike Vrabel team built around physical football, while two high-profile defenses give this meeting the potential to become a tense, field-position battle.

Pittsburgh Steelers started the season with a 20-13 home win against Atlanta Falcons at Acrisure Stadium. Pittsburgh finished with 264 total yards, including 206 net passing yards and 58 on the ground, while recording 15 first downs and scoring two touchdowns.

T.J. Watt delivered the standout performance, recording two sacks and returning an interception 35 yards for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Aaron Rodgers completed 24 of 40 passes for 221 yards and a touchdown without an interception, with Pat Freiermuth catching five passes for 46 yards and the Steelers' only offensive touchdown.

New England Patriots opened their season with a 13-10 road defeat against Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. The Patriots produced 277 total yards, with 168 net passing yards and 109 rushing yards, while registering 19 first downs and scoring one touchdown.

Drake Maye completed 23 of 33 passes for 178 yards and a touchdown but was intercepted three times, while also contributing 47 rushing yards on seven carries. Rhamondre Stevenson had 51 rushing yards and 44 receiving yards, while Mack Hollins led New England's receivers with 51 yards.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Steelers triumphed 21-14 when they last played the Pats. This head-to-head was played at Gillette Stadium. The past 4 clashes between these teams have seen three Pats wins.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers

213.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Drake Maye

224.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Steelers vs Patriots Prediction & Picks

Tackle Steelers vs Patriots with all the betting insight you need, including our match prediction, scoreline forecast, key player prop selections and a hand-picked bet builder.

Game Prediction

The Patriots are capable of covering the -4.5 line. We’re confident of a strong showing in this NFL showdown and a wager against the spread is the best play at -120.

Knowing which players are injured gives us a valuable edge when making NFL picks. After reviewing the form guide, we turn to the latest stats to shape our predictions.

Key Steelers vs Patriots stats:

• The -4.5 line has been covered by Patriots in 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -4.5 line has been covered by Patriots in 12 of their last 20 games.

Pats -4.5 Probability

According to the top sportsbooks, there’s a 54.6% likelihood of our pick landing a return. However, our analysts think that the probability is close to 60% taking all factors into consideration. This bet can therefore be backed with confidence.

As a wagering alternative, you can choose to buy or sell points when it comes to your spread pick. Buy if you want a safer bet and sell to get more juice from the line.

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Our Game Prediction

Patriots -4.5 @ -120 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Sep 18, 19:25). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD +105

Rhamondre Stevenson (Pats) is available at +105 to reach the end zone. All things considered, we believe the odds are appealing for betting on him in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.

Latest Rhamondre Stevenson Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

-100

First

+550

Receiving Yards

Over 19.5

-114

Under 19.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 48.5

-114

Under 48.5

-114

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Drake Maye Over 224.5 Passing Yards -114

You can back Drake Maye (Pats) at -114 to rack up over 224.5 passing yards. He looks capable of covering the line and that leads us to taking this QB Passing Yards bet.

Latest Drake Maye Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+270

First

+1200

Passing Yards

Over 224.5

-114

Under 224.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 27.5

-114

Under 27.5

-114

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Steelers 14 - 23 Patriots

Should you want to go for a selection at huge odds, head to the correct score lines where the Pats can be backed speculatively to achieve a 23-14 victory.

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Steelers vs Patriots Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Sportsbooks’ favorites New England Patriots are regarded as likeliest victors for this game and the -233 about them triumphing means a 70% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +194 about Pittsburgh Steelers.

There is a spread of 5.5 and total points has a line of 41.5. The Totals offers NFL fans an alternative way of getting involved. If you want to bet Under 41.5, there are odds of -110.

The best NFL sportsbooks offer a wide range of team props and game lines for every matchup. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Moneyline

Steelers

+194

Patriots

-233

Point Spread

Steelers +5.5

-115

Patriots -5.5

-105

Total Points

Under 41.5

-110

Over 41.5

-110

Favorite Rhamondre Stevenson is priced at +550 to be the first player to score a touchdown. There’s also the opportunity to back him to score a TD at anytime at odds of -100.

Touchdown

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

First TD

+550

Anytime TD

-100

Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

First TD

+950

Anytime TD

+200

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

First TD

+950

Anytime TD

+240

Rico Dowdle (Steelers)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+220

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+220

DK Metcalf (Steelers)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+210

Drake Maye (Patriots)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+270

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+270

Romeo Doubs (Patriots)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+290

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+400

Michael Pittman Jr. (Steelers)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+440

Roman Wilson (Steelers)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+450

Pat Freiermuth (Steelers)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+400

Darnell Washington (Steelers)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+650

Eli Raridon (Patriots)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+750

Germie Bernard (Steelers)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+750

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+950

Ben Skowronek (Steelers)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1500

Aaron Rodgers (Steelers)

First TD

+7500

Anytime TD

+1700

Kaden Wetjen (Steelers)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1900

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1900

Riley Nowakowski (Steelers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3300

Eli Heidenreich (Steelers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Cameron Latu (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3300

Reggie Gilliam (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Tanner Arkin (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3300

Robert Tonyan (Steelers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+4000

Corey Kiner (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Travis Homer (Steelers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Receiving Yards

DK Metcalf (Steelers)

Over 59.5

-114

Under 59.5

-114

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 39.5

-114

Under 39.5

-114

Romeo Doubs (Patriots)

Over 37.5

-114

Under 37.5

-114

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

Over 35.5

-114

Under 35.5

-114

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

Over 34.5

-114

Under 34.5

-114

Michael Pittman Jr. (Steelers)

Over 34.5

-114

Under 34.5

-114

Roman Wilson (Steelers)

Over 33.5

-114

Under 33.5

-114

Pat Freiermuth (Steelers)

Over 31.5

-114

Under 31.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 19.5

-114

Under 19.5

-114

Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

Over 18.5

-114

Under 18.5

-114

Germie Bernard (Steelers)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Darnell Washington (Steelers)

Over 14.5

-114

Under 14.5

-114

Rico Dowdle (Steelers)

Over 14.5

-114

Under 14.5

-114

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 48.5

-114

Under 48.5

-114

Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

Over 42.5

-114

Under 42.5

-114

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 33.5

-114

Under 33.5

-114

Rico Dowdle (Steelers)

Over 33.5

-114

Under 33.5

-114

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 27.5

-114

Under 27.5

-114

Aaron Rodgers (Steelers)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-118

Passing Yards

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 224.5

-114

Under 224.5

-114

Aaron Rodgers (Steelers)

Over 213.5

-114

Under 213.5

-114

You don’t have to wait for the final outcome when it comes to NFL micro betting. Instead, there’s the opportunity to wager on live lines which tend to be settled in a shorter space of time and the in-game odds are always changing.

Pats Riding Momentum at Home

The Patriots have reeled off three straight victories at Gillette Stadium. They have eight wins and two losses in the last 10 home games, averaging 28.50 points scored and 16.30 points allowed.

The Steelers are 4-6 in their last 10 games on the road, posting 21.70 points per contest while yielding 25.60.

The Steelers beat the Pats 21-14 when they last met at Gillette Stadium.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O41.5	U41.5
Patriots Home Stats		8-2	44.80	28.50	16.30	7	3
Steelers Away Stats		4-6	47.30	21.70	25.60	7	3

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O41.5 = Games Over 41.5 Points
• U41.5 = Games Under 41.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Pittsburgh Steelers Stats

New England Patriots Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 42.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 47.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 41.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 41.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 21.10 pts and allowed 21.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 21.70 pts and allowed 25.60 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 41.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 45.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 41.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 41.5 at Home: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 24.90 pts and allowed 16.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 28.40 pts and allowed 17.10 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 310.90 Yds. Allowed 333.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 110.60 Yds. Allowed 124.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 200.30 Yds. Allowed 208.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.40 TD. Allowed 2.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.90. Allowed 18.30
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.80. Committed by opponents 1.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.70. Committed by opponents 7.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 48.60 Yds. Gained 56.80 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 357.30 Yds. Allowed 265.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 142.20 Yds. Allowed 112.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 215.10 Yds. Allowed 152.50 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.00 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.50. Allowed 15.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.40. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 3.70. Committed by opponents 4.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 38.00 Yds. Gained 35.80 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 312.10 Yds. Allowed 380.00 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 106.40 Yds. Allowed 148.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 205.70 Yds. Allowed 231.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 2.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.90. Allowed 22.30
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.00. Committed by opponents 5.60
• Penalty Yards: Lost 44.00 Yds. Gained 44.90 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 359.30 Yds. Allowed 262.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 139.40 Yds. Allowed 102.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 219.90 Yds. Allowed 159.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.40 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 0.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.70. Allowed 16.70
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 4.00. Committed by opponents 4.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 39.80 Yds. Gained 33.50 Yds

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