Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 10 May 2026

Liga MX Betting Preview: Pachuca vs Toluca

Pachuca go head-to-head with Toluca at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, with kick-off set for 19:00 on Sunday 10 May.

There’s a strong case for goals to be scored when Pachuca and Toluca lock horns. Therefore, we’re going to back Over 2.5 on the Total Goals market, especially at attractive odds of -164.

Tuzos Won Last H2H Encounter

Pachuca and Deportivo Toluca last met on Sunday night, with Pachuca winning 1-0 away. Toluca had 65% possession, while Pachuca were 7-5 winners in term of shots on target. Enner Valencia notched the winning goal.

Looking back to the previous 10 H2H meetings, there has been three draws. Toluca have won four games and Pachuca three.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
4	Pachuca	17	9	4	4	25	19	6	25:19	31
5	Toluca	17	8	6	3	28	16	12	28:16	30

View Full Table

Tuzos have 6 wins, 2 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.7 goals from 10.7 attempts and 5.3 shots on goal. They have averaged 44.8% possession and 5.1 corners per game, conceding 1.3 goals and 4.9 corners from 9.0 attempts and 4.4 shots on goal.

Top goalscorer is Victor Guzman on 5 goals, while Enner Valencia and Kenedy have both bagged 3. Brian Garcia is the top assists maker on 4.

Deportivo Toluca have 3 victories, 4 defeats and 3 draws, with an average of 1.7 goals from 12.8 attempts and 5.8 shots on goal. There’s been an average of 58.4% possession, 6.4 corners in their favour and 4.2 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.5 goals from 9.7 attempts and 4.5 shots on goal.

The top scorers have been Nicolas Castro, Antonio Briseno, Jesus Angulo and Paulinho, with 2 goals apiece. Jesus Gallardo has been top assists provider with 3 in the previous 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Pachuca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Carlos Moreno (GK), Carlos Sánchez, Eduardo Bauermann, Sergio Barreto, Brian García, Christian Rivera, Elías Montiel, Kenedy, Víctor Guzmán, Oussama Idrissi, Salomon Rondon.

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis García (GK), Santiago Simón, Bruno Méndez, Everardo del Villar, Mauricio André Isais, Marcel Ruíz, Franco Romero, Helinho, Nicolas Castro, Pavel Uriel Pérez, Paulinho.

Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips

From our key match prediction to corners advice, correct score pick, top player prop insights and a builder tailored for value — our Pachuca vs Toluca betting tips covers it all.

Match Prediction

The numbers suggest that we’ll see the net bulge a few times during this Liga MX encounter. If you agree with our prediction, you can get odds of -164 when it comes to backing Over 2.5 Goals.

We’re constantly keeping tabs on the Liga MX team news. Along with the latest form, this helps us get the value every time. Our football experts are able to take a stats-led approach, with the key numbers providing a guide.

Key Pachuca vs Toluca league stats:

• The 2.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 Pachuca games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Pachuca games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Toluca games on the road.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in the last 2 Toluca games on the road.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 8 of the last 10 games between these teams.

According to the top bookies, our pick has a 62.1% chance of landing a return. In the opinion of our tipsters, there’s actually a probability of success between 65-70%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

If you’re expecting a few goals to be notched, you have the opportunity to combine the Over 2.5 Goals pick with BTTS Yes. Head to Total Goals & Both Teams to Score market for bigger odds.

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Our Match Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals @ -164 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 9, 01:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Pachuca 1 - 2 Toluca

A 2-1 win in favor of Toluca is available at odds of +650. Take a chance on the correct score and get rewarded for predicting the right scoreline.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nicolas Castro to Score +320

Nicolas Castro (Toluca) has netted two goals in his past five Liga MX matches. Based on the stats, we are happy to back the +320 when it comes to him finding the net on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Nicolas Castro Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+320

First

+900

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Over 9.5 Corners -105

The 9.5 Total Corners line has been covered in seven straight Toluca away games, while the same outcome has happened in two consecutive Pachuca matches. We think this presents a convincing argument and we’ll wager the Total Corners line to be covered which is available at odds of -105.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Pachuca

Total

10.00 5.10 4.90

Home

8.40 4.50 3.90

Away

8.80 4.10 4.70

Toluca

Total

10.60 6.40 4.20

Home

9.20 5.70 3.50

Away

9.90 6.10 3.80

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-105

Under 9.5

-141

Pachuca Corners

Over 4.5

+110

Under 4.5

-175

Toluca Corners

Over 4.5

-147

Under 4.5

-106

Most Corners

1

+138

X

+650

2

-135

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Pachuca vs Toluca Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

For this Liga MX clash, Deportivo Toluca are the +118 favourites to triumph according to the latest Full-Time Result betting odds. This reflects that they have a 46% chance of winning. Pachuca are trading at a bigger price than their opponents and the outsiders can be backed at +195.

If Toluca and Pachuca play out a draw, then an Asian Handicap -0.25 on the former means a half stake refund. However, a victory for the favourites would mean a full payout at -111.

The lowest odds can be found for Over 2.5 Goals, which means at least three goals being netted. The Yes option in the Both Teams to Score market is regarded as the most likely outcome and is trading at -208.

The top football betting sites cover Liga MX matches in serious depth and there are hundreds of markets. We recommend scanning through the various bets before picking out the best angle.

Full-Time Result

1

+195

X

+250

2

+118

Half-Time Result

1

+225

X

+128

2

+170

Double Chance

1X

-167

12

-385

X2

-286

Draw No Bet

1

+110

2

-172

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.25

-120

2 Hcp -0.25

-111

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+118

Over 2.5

-164

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-208

No

+138

Those interested in favourite João Paulo Paulinho to find the net first can get +340, while the Anytime Goalscorer angle could hold more appeal and this is +115.

João Paulo Paulinho (Toluca)

First

+115

Anytime

+340

Salomón Rondón (Pachuca)

First

+170

Anytime

+480

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+200

Anytime

+600

Enner Valencia (Pachuca)

First

+250

Anytime

+700

Helinho (Toluca)

First

+290

Anytime

+800

Kenedy (Pachuca)

First

+320

Anytime

+850

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+320

Anytime

+900

Gael Álvarez (Pachuca)

First

+370

Anytime

+1050

Pavel Perez (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1150

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1200

Oussama Idrissi (Pachuca)

First

+420

Anytime

+1200

Alexei Dominguez (Pachuca)

First

+480

Anytime

+1300

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1500

Alán Bautista (Pachuca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1300

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1400

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+1500

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+1500

Sebastian Cordova (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+1500

Christian Rivera (Pachuca)

First

+575

Anytime

+1700

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+1900

Pedro Pedraza (Pachuca)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Elías Montiel (Pachuca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Pachuca have clocked up seven wins, two draws and one defeat in the past 10 home games, recording an average of 1.90 goals per match and conceding 1.00.

The past three Toluca games on the road have ended in defeat. Los Diablos Rojos have managed four losses, three victories and three draws in the last 10 away matches, recording an average of 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10.

The previous Estadio Miguel Hidalgo encounter involved a 1-1 draw between Pachuca and Toluca. It’s been three Toluca victories, three draws and two Pachuca wins in the previous 8 H2H games at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Pachuca Home Stats		7-2-1	2.90	1.90	1.00	6	4	7	3
Toluca Away Stats		3-3-4	2.30	1.20	1.10	4	6	4	6

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Pachuca vs Toluca Lineups & Team News

The latest Tuzos vs Toluca team news could impact your bets — review it first. We’ll offer the predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups along with the latest injury developments.

Pachuca Team Page Toluca Team Page

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