Dolphins vs Bills Prediction, Picks & Odds | 18 Sep 2025

NFL Betting Preview: Dolphins vs Bills

The Miami Dolphins clash with the Buffalo Bills in this NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football matchup at Highmark Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 20:15 on Thursday, September 18. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, updated betting odds, head-to-head stats and the latest team news, including injuries.

We have decided to go for the Bills on the spread. The favorites should be able to cover the -11.5 line at odds of -114 when they take on the Dolphins.

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Miami Dolphins suffered a second consecutive defeat when losing 33-27 in their previous game. This was at home to New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins finished with 358 total yards, made up of 297 through the air and 61 on the ground. They moved the chains 16 times and produced 3 touchdowns.

Buffalo Bills have triumphed in back-to-back games. The latest of these was on the road where New York Jets were beaten 30-10 at MetLife Stadium. The Bills moved the ball for 403 yards, including 179 passing and 224 rushing yards. The offense picked up 25 first downs and produced 3 touchdowns, each one a rushing score.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last head-to-head saw the Bills claim a 30-27 win over the Dolphins at Highmark Stadium. In the past 10 H2H meetings, the Bills have won nine.

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa

243.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Josh Allen

238.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Dolphins vs Bills Prediction & Picks

Get the edge with our best Dolphins vs Bills tips: a key match prediction, correct score recommendation, top player prop bets and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

There’s a case to be made for the Bills on the spread in this NFL matchup. Our prediction is that the favorites can cover the -11.5 line at odds of -114 considering they should be superior.

Our NFL predictions are built after tracking the latest team news and reviewing recent form. We also dive into up-to-date stats, which often serve as a solid barometer for how the action might unfold.

Key Dolphins vs Bills stats:

• The +11.5 line hasn’t been covered by Dolphins in 3 of their last 5 games on the road.
• The +11.5 line hasn’t been covered by Dolphins in 2 consecutive games on the road.

Bills -11.5 Probability

According to the latest betting odds, our pick has a 53.2% chance of winning. However, our cappers research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this bet.

If the price on display doesn’t appeal, you can make the choice to secure bigger odds by moving the line for your selection. It’s a case of taking a view which you are happy with.

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Our Game Prediction

Bills -11.5 @ -114 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Josh Allen Over 233.5 Passing Yards -114

Josh Allen (Bills) can be backed at -114 to go beyond 233.5 passing yards. We’re confident in taking him to cover the QB Passing Yards line and bettors can back this pick with conviction.

Latest Josh Allen Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

-164

First

+470

Passing Yards

Over 238.5

-112

Under 238.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 28.5

-112

Under 28.5

-112

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Malik Washington Over 4.5 Rushing Yards +106

You can place a bet on Malik Washington (Bills) at +106 to reach over 4.5 rushing yards. The line for him on the Overs looks attractive and bettors can get plenty of juice from this Player Rushing Yards wager.

Latest Malik Washington Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+470

First

+3000

Receiving Yards

Over 24.5

-112

Under 24.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 4.5

-112

Under 4.5

-112

Correct Score Prediction

Dolphins 14 - 28 Bills

Should you wish to go for a speculative wager, try the Bills to win 28-14 on the correct score lines. This should be a fun bet which could potentially yield a big return.

Dolphins vs Bills Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

With an estimated 88% chance of winning, the sportsbooks are taking no chances with their -769 betting odds about Buffalo Bills triumphing in this game. At +540, Miami Dolphins are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

11.5 is the spread and 50.5 is the total points line. A Total wager relates to the number of points that will be scored overall. Those who wager Under 50.5 can get -108.

Whether you're placing bets before kickoff or during the game, the best NFL sportsbooks delivers a massive range of game lines and team props. The betting sites give you endless ways to get involved with plenty of exciting alternatives.

Moneyline

Dolphins

+540

Bills

-769

Point Spread

Dolphins +11.5

-110

Bills -11.5

-110

Total Points

Under 50.5

-108

Over 50.5

-112

There’s the chance to back James Cook at +420 to be the First Touchdown Scorer. He’s the favorite and available at similar odds to record the last TD instead.

Touchdown

James Cook (Bills)

First TD

+420

Anytime TD

-179

Josh Allen (Bills)

First TD

+470

Anytime TD

-164

De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

First TD

+750

Anytime TD

-105

Keon Coleman (Bills)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+190

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+230

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+160

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+280

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+300

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+250

Dawson Knox (Bills)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+500

Ray Davis (Bills)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+370

Malik Washington (Dolphins)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+470

Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+550

Darren Waller (Dolphins)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+650

Ty Johnson (Bills)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+550

Tanner Conner (Dolphins)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+750

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Dolphins)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+700

Elijah Moore (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+850

Tyrell Shavers (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1000

Jaylen Wright (Dolphins)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1000

Curtis Samuel (Bills)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+870

Julian Hill (Dolphins)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1100

Jackson Hawes (Bills)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1700

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Dee Eskridge (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Alec Ingold (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Reggie Gilliam (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Receiving Yards

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)

Over 66.5

-112

Under 66.5

-112

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins)

Over 48.5

-112

Under 48.5

-112

Keon Coleman (Bills)

Over 43.5

-112

Under 43.5

-112

De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

Over 42.5

-112

Under 42.5

-112

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

Over 42.5

-112

Under 42.5

-112

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

Over 35.5

-112

Under 35.5

-112

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

Over 33.5

-112

Under 33.5

-112

Malik Washington (Dolphins)

Over 24.5

-112

Under 24.5

-112

Dawson Knox (Bills)

Over 15.5

-112

Under 15.5

-112

James Cook (Bills)

Over 14.5

-112

Under 14.5

-112

Tanner Conner (Dolphins)

Over 12.5

-112

Under 12.5

-112

Rushing Yards

James Cook (Bills)

Over 69.5

-112

Under 69.5

-112

De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

Over 52.5

-112

Under 52.5

-112

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 28.5

-112

Under 28.5

-112

Ray Davis (Bills)

Over 23.5

-112

Under 23.5

-112

Malik Washington (Dolphins)

Over 4.5

-112

Under 4.5

-112

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

Over 0.5

-127

Under 0.5

-102

Passing Yards

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

Over 243.5

-112

Under 243.5

-112

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 238.5

-112

Under 238.5

-112

Instead of focusing on the overall outcome, some bettors prefer to look at the NFL micro betting lines. As the name suggests, it means placing short-term wagers and this might include the Next Play or Next Drive Result.

Bills Rolling at Home

The Bills have gone 10-0 across their last 10 home games, scoring 33.90 points per contest and conceding 18.50.

The Dolphins own a 3-7 mark in their past 10 games away from home, putting up 15.50 points per contest and giving up 21.30.

The Bills defeated the Dolphins 30-27 the last time they played at Highmark Stadium. The last 7 head-to-head matchups at Highmark Stadium have all gone the way of the Bills.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O49.5	U49.5
Bills Home Stats		10-0	52.40	33.90	18.50	6	4
Dolphins Away Stats		3-7	36.80	15.50	21.30	2	8

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O49.5 = Games Over 49.5 Points
• U49.5 = Games Under 49.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Miami Dolphins Stats

Buffalo Bills Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +11.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +11.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -11.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -11.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 46.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 36.80 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 49.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 on the Road: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 23.30 pts and allowed 22.80 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 15.50 pts and allowed 21.30 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 58.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 52.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 49.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 32.80 pts and allowed 25.80 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 33.90 pts and allowed 18.50 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 326.50 Yds. Allowed 334.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 79.70 Yds. Allowed 101.10 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 246.80 Yds. Allowed 233.30 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.40 TD. Allowed 2.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.40. Allowed 19.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.40. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.70. Committed by opponents 8.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 47.90 Yds. Gained 65.00 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 395.30 Yds. Allowed 354.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 153.50 Yds. Allowed 122.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 241.80 Yds. Allowed 231.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 4.00 TD. Allowed 3.30 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 2.30 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 23.30. Allowed 21.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.10. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.40. Committed by opponents 6.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 49.10 Yds. Gained 53.00 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 294.90 Yds. Allowed 324.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 104.00 Yds. Allowed 114.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 190.90 Yds. Allowed 209.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.60. Allowed 19.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 2.00. Committed by opponents 1.00
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.80. Committed by opponents 7.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 54.10 Yds. Gained 60.40 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 375.30 Yds. Allowed 312.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 134.80 Yds. Allowed 128.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 240.50 Yds. Allowed 184.00 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 4.10 TD. Allowed 2.30 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.80. Allowed 20.00
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.30. Committed by opponents 2.00
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.60. Committed by opponents 6.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 41.70 Yds. Gained 49.60 Yds

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