SMU vs Florida State Prediction, Picks & Odds | 07 Sep 2026
College Football Betting Preview: SMU vs Florida State
SMU square off against Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 19:30 on Monday, September 7.
SMU can cover the -2.5 line on the spread. This is a great number and that’s why we’re playing the Mustangs at -122 to have the edge over Florida State.
SMU Mustangs finished last season with a 24-19 win over Arizona Wildcats in the Holiday Bowl at Snapdragon Stadium.
Florida State Seminoles ended the 2025 regular season with a 40-21 road loss to rival Florida Gators in the Sunshine Showdown at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Head-to-Head Statistics
SMU won the last matchup between the pair. Enjoying a 42-16 triumph when facing FSU at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
Quarterbacks
Kevin Jennings
Ashton Daniels
SMU vs Florida State Prediction & Picks
Get the edge with our best SMU vs Florida State tips: a key match prediction, correct score recommendation, top player prop bets and a ready-made bet builder.
Game Prediction
We’re confident of backing SMU to cover the -2.5 spread in this college football battle. This is a more than generous line and the favorites look a great wager at -122.
We closely track recent form and look for patterns that may impact the outcome. The same goes for injuries to key players. When combined with the most relevant stats, this gives us a strong foundation for accurate CFB picks.
Key SMU vs Florida State stats:
SMU -2.5 Probability
The top sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 54.9% likelihood of this pick winning. Taking all factors into consideration, our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. It's why we think it’s worth placing this college wager.
If you want to land a big potential return from a small stake, then a Bet Builder could be a way to go. Bet on SMU to cover the line in a combination with other selections.
Power up your bet with the latest free bets, sign-up bonuses and premium betting offers found in our in-depth guide.
Player Prop Picks
Kevin Jennings (SMU) can be backed at -114 to record more than 264.5 passing yards. We believe it makes sense to stick with him on the Over and bettors can be confident in this QB Passing Yards pick.
Micahi Danzy (FSU) is available at -114 to accumulate over 47.5 receiving yards. He looks capable of covering the line and that leads us to taking this Player Receiving Yards bet.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Same Game Parlay Pick
Try out our same game parlay pick which starts with SMU -2.5. We’ve also gone for Under 53.5 points and Kevin Jennings (SMU) to have Over 264.5 passing yards.
The same game parlay option allows you to combine different outcomes within the same game. You need all your predictions to be correct although bettors love to place a tailored football bet on the event which interests them most.
Correct Score Prediction
28
-
17
Florida State
Should you want to go for a selection at massive odds, head to the correct score lines where the Mustangs can be backed speculatively to achieve a 28-17 victory.
SMU vs Florida State Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
With a 60% chance of securing victory, SMU are favorites for this college game and the sportsbooks have them at betting odds of -149. Florida State are trading at bigger odds than their opponents and they can be backed at +125.
2.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 54.5 right now. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. If you fancy Under 54.5, then the odds are -105.
Whether you are wagering pre-game or in-game on college football, the top betting apps let you feast on a wide range of team props and game lines. The selections are practically endless, and it’s awesome to have so many options at your fingertips.
There is -175 available that Kendrick Raphael scores a touchdown anytime. If you’re interested in the favorite to score the first TD, then you are able to secure +500.
Touchdown
Receiving Yards
Rushing Yards
Passing Yards
Micro betting is an exciting way to wager on college football. There are a huge range of live lines and it’s a simple case of predicting what is going to happen next. Field Goal Outcome, Next Drive Result and Next Play Result are often among the options.
FSU Looking to Extend Strong Home Form
Florida State have strung together three in a row at Doak Campbell Stadium. They have gone 7-3 across their last 10 home games, posting 38.90 points per contest while yielding 16.80.
SMU have six wins and four losses in the last 10 road games, putting up 29.00 points on average and giving up 21.50.
| Last 10 Games | W-L | P | PF | PA | O53.5 | U53.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Florida State Home Stats |
7-3 | 55.70 | 38.90 | 16.80 | 3 | 7 | |
 SMU Away Stats |
6-4 | 50.50 | 29.00 | 21.50 | 5 | 5 | |
- W-L = Wins-Losses
- P = Avg. Points
- PF = Avg. Points For
- PA = Avg. Points Against
- O53.5 = Games Over 53.5 Points
- U53.5 = Games Under 53.5 Points
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
SMU Stats
Florida State Seminoles Stats
- 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
- 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- -2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
- -2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road
- +2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
- +2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 50.00 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 50.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 53.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
- Over 53.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 30.40 pts and allowed 19.60 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 29.00 pts and allowed 21.50 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 50.70 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 55.70 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 53.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
- Over 53.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 25.60 pts and allowed 25.10 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 38.90 pts and allowed 16.80 pts in the last 10 home games
| Atlantic Coast | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami
|
5 | 0 | 248 | 49 | 199 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 5W |
Duke
|
4 | 0 | 145 | 44 | 101 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 4W |
California
|
2 | 3 | 135 | 133 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2L |
North Carolina
|
3 | 2 | 117 | 95 | 22 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1W |
Wake Forest
|
5 | 1 | 221 | 129 | 92 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 3W |
Pittsburgh
|
5 | 1 | 209 | 88 | 121 | 4-1 | 1-0 | 1L |
|
SMU
|
4 | 1 | 173 | 115 | 58 | 3-0 | 1-1 | 2W |
Louisville
|
3 | 3 | 237 | 166 | 71 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 1W |
Virginia
|
3 | 2 | 169 | 90 | 79 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 1L |
Virginia Tech
|
4 | 1 | 206 | 99 | 107 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 1L |
|
Florida State
|
3 | 3 | 186 | 152 | 34 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 1L |
NC State
|
3 | 3 | 198 | 166 | 32 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 1L |
Stanford
|
2 | 3 | 87 | 191 | -104 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 1L |
Clemson
|
3 | 2 | 97 | 129 | -32 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 1L |
Syracuse
|
2 | 2 | 139 | 92 | 47 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1W |
Boston College
|
2 | 3 | 95 | 117 | -22 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 2L |
Georgia Tech
|
1 | 3 | 108 | 104 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1L |
Syracuse
Virginia
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