Chiefs vs Dolphins Prediction, Picks & Odds | 27 Sep 2026

NFL Betting Preview: Chiefs vs Dolphins

The Kansas City Chiefs square off against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, September 27.

The Dolphins have been given a big number on the spread. We recommend taking the -108 that the underdogs cover the +10.5 against the Chiefs.

Kansas City Chiefs made it back-to-back wins after a 33-30 (OT) home success over Indianapolis Colts at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs generated 523 yards, including 371 passing and 152 rushing yards. They produced 29 first downs and crossed the goal line 3 times.

Miami Dolphins have been defeated in back-to-back games. On the road, they recently suffered a 35-13 loss against San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. The Dolphins recorded 284 yards, split between 182 passing and 102 rushing yards. Their output included 13 first downs along with a single touchdown.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Chiefs triumphed 26-7 when they last played the Dolphins. This head-to-head was played at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. For the past 3 games involving these teams, there has been a Chiefs win every time.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes

235.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Malik Willis

177.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Chiefs vs Dolphins Prediction & Picks

Get set for Chiefs vs Dolphins with our full betting breakdown, complete with an expert match prediction, a likely final score, top player prop picks and a value-driven bet builder.

Game Prediction

Our pick is that the Dolphins might not be beaten heavily in this NFL battle. They have been afforded a generous +10.5 and we recommend backing the underdogs at -108.

We’re always on top of team news and when combined with recent form, it helps us uncover the best value. Our NFL handicappers also take a data-led approach, using key stats to back every pick.

Key Chiefs vs Dolphins stats:

• The +10.5 line has been covered by Dolphins in 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• The +10.5 line has been covered by Dolphins in 16 of their last 20 games at home.
• The -10.5 line hasn’t been covered by Chiefs in 6 consecutive games on the road.
• The -10.5 line hasn’t been covered by Chiefs in 9 of their last 10 games.
• The -10.5 line hasn’t been covered by Chiefs in 17 of their last 20 games on the road.
• The +10.5 line has been covered by Dolphins in 2 of their last 3 games against Chiefs.

Dolphins +10.5 Probability

The best betting apps are estimating that there is a 51.8% likelihood of this pick winning. Taking all factors into consideration, our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. It is the reason why we are recommending this wager.

If you’re in pursuit of bigger odds, then a Bet Builder could be a way forward. Take the Dolphins to cover the line with additional selections until you’re satisfied with the price.

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Our Game Prediction

Dolphins +10.5 @ -108 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Sep 25, 19:25). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: De'Von Achane Anytime TD +115

De'Von Achane (Dolphins) is available at +115 to reach the end zone. The Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds look attractive based on the evidence, and we’ll back him to take it to the house.

Latest De'Von Achane Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+115

First

+800

Receiving Yards

Over 26.5

-114

Under 26.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 59.5

-114

Under 59.5

-114

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Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 Rushing Yards -114

The odds for Patrick Mahomes (Dolphins) to surpass 17.5 rushing yards are -114. We can back him in the Player Rushing Yards market and hope the Over hits.

Latest Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+340

First

+1600

Passing Yards

Over 235.5

-114

Under 235.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 17.5

-114

Under 17.5

-114

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Chiefs 23 - 20 Dolphins

Don’t pass up the opportunity to have a speculative wager on the Chiefs to claim a 23-20 victory. We don’t think that there will be too much between the teams.

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Chiefs vs Dolphins Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Kansas City Chiefs are massive -714 favorites. They are regarded as 88% likely to win this game judging by the sportsbooks’ latest Moneyline odds. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, Miami Dolphins are trading at +500.

The spread is calculated to be 10.5, while total points comes in at 45.5. A bet on the Totals allows fans to use the latest NFL data to good effect. Those who wager Under 45.5 can get -115.

The top NFL sportsbooks offer a huge selection of game lines and team props when it comes to this popular league. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Moneyline

Chiefs

-714

Dolphins

+500

Point Spread

Chiefs -10.5

-112

Dolphins +10.5

-108

Total Points

Under 45.5

-115

Over 45.5

-105

Favorite Kenneth Walker III is now available at +340 to be the First Touchdown Scorer. You will find similar odds apply when it comes to him scoring the last TD.

Touchdown

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)

First TD

+340

Anytime TD

-208

Rashee Rice (Chiefs)

First TD

+700

Anytime TD

+115

Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

First TD

+800

Anytime TD

+135

De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

First TD

+800

Anytime TD

+115

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+180

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+340

Malik Willis (Dolphins)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+310

Emmett Johnson (Chiefs)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+370

Tyquan Thornton (Chiefs)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+460

Malik Washington (Dolphins)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+340

Noah Gray (Chiefs)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+550

Greg Dulcich (Dolphins)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+390

Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+470

Jaylen Wright (Dolphins)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+450

Chris Bell (Dolphins)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+650

Jalen Royals (Chiefs)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+1000

Kevin Coleman Jr. (Dolphins)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+850

Jake Briningstool (Chiefs)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+1500

Jared Wiley (Chiefs)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+1500

Will Kacmarek (Dolphins)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1000

Jalen Tolbert (Dolphins)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1600

Ryan Miller (Dolphins)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1600

Cyrus Allen (Chiefs)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+2200

Nikko Remigio (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1700

Brashard Smith (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Seydou Traore (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Justin Joly (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

DJ Herman (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Receiving Yards

Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

Over 51.5

-114

Under 51.5

-114

Rashee Rice (Chiefs)

Over 48.5

-114

Under 48.5

-114

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

Over 37.5

-114

Under 37.5

-114

Malik Washington (Dolphins)

Over 35.5

-114

Under 35.5

-114

De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

Over 26.5

-114

Under 26.5

-114

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)

Over 22.5

-114

Under 22.5

-114

Greg Dulcich (Dolphins)

Over 22.5

-114

Under 22.5

-114

Tyquan Thornton (Chiefs)

Over 19.5

-114

Under 19.5

-114

Chris Bell (Dolphins)

Over 19.5

-114

Under 19.5

-114

Kevin Coleman Jr. (Dolphins)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Emmett Johnson (Chiefs)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)

Over 82.5

-114

Under 82.5

-114

De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

Over 59.5

-114

Under 59.5

-114

Malik Willis (Dolphins)

Over 33.5

-114

Under 33.5

-114

Emmett Johnson (Chiefs)

Over 28.5

-114

Under 28.5

-114

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Over 17.5

-114

Under 17.5

-114

Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins)

Over 8.5

-114

Under 8.5

-114

Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Over 235.5

-114

Under 235.5

-114

Malik Willis (Dolphins)

Over 177.5

-114

Under 177.5

-114

Last Ten Home Games Have Produced Six Wins for Dolphins

The Dolphins are 6-4 in their last 10 home games, posting 24.00 points per contest while yielding 24.60.

The Chiefs are riding a skid of six consecutive road defeats. They have one win and nine losses in the last 10 games away from home, averaging 18.20 points scored and 26.60 points allowed.

In their most recent matchup at Hard Rock Stadium, the Chiefs got the better of the Dolphins 33-27.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O45.5	U45.5
Dolphins Home Stats		6-4	48.60	24.00	24.60	6	4
Chiefs Away Stats		1-9	44.80	18.20	26.60	5	5

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O45.5 = Games Over 45.5 Points
• U45.5 = Games Under 45.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Kansas City Chiefs Stats

Miami Dolphins Stats

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 1 win and 9 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -10.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 1 of the last 10 games
• -10.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 1 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +10.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• +10.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 40.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 44.80 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 45.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 45.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 19.10 pts and allowed 20.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 18.20 pts and allowed 26.60 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 43.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 45.70 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 45.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 45.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 19.30 pts and allowed 24.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 22.40 pts and allowed 23.30 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 303.50 Yds. Allowed 300.50 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 109.30 Yds. Allowed 103.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 194.20 Yds. Allowed 196.90 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.40 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.00. Allowed 17.00
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.50. Committed by opponents 7.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 58.90 Yds. Gained 54.80 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 303.30 Yds. Allowed 350.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 134.50 Yds. Allowed 116.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 168.80 Yds. Allowed 234.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 3.10 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.40. Allowed 20.60
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 1.50
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.80. Committed by opponents 5.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 43.40 Yds. Gained 43.20 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 278.10 Yds. Allowed 360.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 83.20 Yds. Allowed 124.10 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 194.90 Yds. Allowed 236.00 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 2.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 15.60. Allowed 20.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.80. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 8.10. Committed by opponents 6.50
• Penalty Yards: Lost 67.20 Yds. Gained 44.10 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 337.90 Yds. Allowed 368.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 137.90 Yds. Allowed 118.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 200.00 Yds. Allowed 250.00 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.20 TD. Allowed 2.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.90 TD. Allowed 2.20 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.90. Allowed 20.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 1.50
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.60. Committed by opponents 7.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 42.60 Yds. Gained 56.50 Yds

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