Navy vs Air Force Prediction, Picks & Odds | 03 Oct 2026

College Football Betting Preview: Navy vs Air Force

Navy faces Air Force in this Week 5 showdown at Falcon Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 on Saturday, October 3.

We’re confident that Navy can produce a strong performance against Air Force. Our best prediction is that the underdogs will cover the +3.5 line and you can currently get -115.

The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy immediately elevates Navy-Air Force beyond an ordinary nonconference game. The service-academy rivalry opens the annual three-way competition with Army, giving every possession added weight and creating one of Week 5’s most tradition-rich matchups even without a Top 25 ranking attached to either program.

The Navy Midshipmen are 1-2 this season after suffering their second straight defeat in a 24-20 road loss to the UAB Blazers. Quarterback Jackson Gutierrez rushed for 134 yards and a touchdown in his first career start, while Navy piled up 249 rushing yards. Two fourth-quarter fumbles proved costly for the Midshipmen.

The Air Force Falcons are 2-1 after earning a 36-33 double-overtime road victory over the Nevada Wolf Pack. Quarterback Liam Szarka rushed for 171 yards and threw for 92 yards, while Air Force amassed 363 rushing yards and 455 total yards. Rocco Conti scored the decisive seven-yard touchdown in the second overtime.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Navy has won the last two meetings against Air Force, earning a 34-31 victory in Annapolis after a 34-7 triumph at Falcon Stadium. The Falcons have won four of the past seven matchups in this Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy rivalry.

Navy vs Air Force Prediction & Picks

This Navy vs Air Force betting breakdown features a main match prediction, a correct score insight and a sharply constructed bet builder to guide your wagers.

Game Prediction

Our best pick is that Navy can outperform their odds in this college football showdown. It leads us to a bet on the spread considering that a generous +3.5 has been chalked up at -115.

We only publish our CFB predictions once we’ve got a clear and confident read on team news and the latest form. We also stay sharp by digging into the most valuable stats to support every pick we make.

Key Navy vs Air Force stats:

• The +3.5 line has been covered by Navy in 15 of their last 20 games.
• The +3.5 line has been covered by Navy in 6 of their last 10 games.
• The -3.5 line hasn’t been covered by Air Force in 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• The -3.5 line hasn’t been covered by Air Force in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -3.5 line hasn’t been covered by Air Force in 2 consecutive games.
• The -3.5 line hasn’t been covered by Air Force in 2 consecutive games against Navy.

Navy +3.5 Probability

Looking at the latest betting odds, our pick has a 53.5% chance of winning. However, our analysts have this number closer to 60% based on their in-depth research. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

We recommend moving the line if you are searching for bigger odds about the same selection. Take your pick and get the juice that you want from your wager in the process.

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Our Game Prediction

Navy +3.5 @ -115 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Navy 28 - 27 Air Force

the Mids are available at massive odds to register a 28-27 victory and they might have the edge. This should be a close matchup and there won’t be much between the teams.

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Navy vs Air Force Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Air Force are -169 favorites and that means a 63% chance of winning this college game according to the Moneyline betting odds with the sportsbooks. At +140, Navy are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

The spread currently stands at 3.5 and the total points line is 45.5. Football fans love the chance to get an alternative angle by going for a Total wager. If you fancy Under 45.5, then the odds are -105.

The good news is that you can access a huge selection of team props and game lines for most college football matchups. The top sportsbooks have a massive range of pre-game and in-game wagering options.

Moneyline

Navy

+140

Air Force

-169

Point Spread

Navy +3.5

-115

Air Force -3.5

-105

Total Points

Under 45.5

-105

Over 45.5

-115

If you have a view on Passing Attempts, Interceptions or Receiving Yards, then the player props could be an option. It’s a great way of betting on a player or a quarterback to perform well and the best gambling sites provide lots of alternatives.

It’s good to consider all wagering options when it comes to college football and micro betting can be an exciting way to get involved in the action. When everything goes in-game, consider whether a player will make or miss a field goal.

Air Force Have Won Five of Their Last Ten Home Games

Air Force own a 5-5 mark in their past 10 home games, averaging 29.50 points on offense and surrendering 23.30 on defense.

Navy have a 6-4 record in their last 10 games away from home, putting up 27.90 points on average and giving up 25.90.

The last time Navy faced Air Force at Falcon Stadium, they won 34-7. In their last 3 head-to-head matchups at Falcon Stadium, Air Force have taken two wins compared to one for Navy.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O45.5	U45.5
Air Force Home Stats		5-5	52.80	29.50	23.30	5	5
Navy Away Stats		6-4	53.80	27.90	25.90	7	3

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O45.5 = Games Over 45.5 Points
• U45.5 = Games Under 45.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Navy Midshipmen Stats

Air Force Falcons Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +3.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -3.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 55.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 53.80 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 45.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 45.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 28.20 pts and allowed 27.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 27.90 pts and allowed 25.90 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 52.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 52.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 45.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 45.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 27.80 pts and allowed 24.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 29.50 pts and allowed 23.30 pts in the last 10 home games

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