Virginia vs SMU Prediction, Picks & Odds | 17 Oct 2026
Virginia vs SMU Predictions
SMU really stand out against the spread. Back the favorites to overcome Virginia with the confidence that they can cover a -9.5 line at odds of -110.
We've put together our Virginia vs SMU selections, featuring our Best Bet, Player Props, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Prediction. Explore each section for the full analysis and reasoning behind each pick.
Virginia vs SMU Preview
Virginia battle SMU at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 on Saturday, October 17.
Virginia Cavaliers won their previous game, beating Syracuse Orange at home. It was a 28-25 win at Scott Stadium.
SMU Mustangs won their last game 25-16, making it three home wins on the bounce. This was recorded at Gerald J. Ford Stadium against Boston College Eagles.
H2H: 33-7 Victory for SMU in Pair’s Last Head-to-Head
SMU won the most recent matchup between these teams. A 33-7 victory was registered against Virginia at Scott Stadium.
Quarterbacks
Beau Pribula
Kevin Jennings
Best Bet
Bet on SMU against the spread, with an attractive line of -9.5 that the favorites get the job done. There are odds of -110 that are currently on offer for this college football matchup.
Key stats supporting our main match prediction:
We keep a close eye on team news and our CFB handicappers stay sharp by tracking the latest form and lineups. You’ll also find a full set of stats that offer valuable insight and help shape smarter predictions ahead of the action.
SMU -9.5 Probability
Based on the odds from the top sportsbooks, our pick has a 52.4% chance of winning. Based on our cappers in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 55-60%. It is the reason why we are recommending this college wager.
The sportsbooks give you the chance to buy or sell points, meaning that you can select from a variety of lines. Buying means shorter prices, with selling sending the odds upwards.
Get more from your bet. Explore our updated guide featuring the hottest betting offers and best welcome bonus deals.
Player Prop Picks
Kevin Jennings (SMU) is available at -114 to rack up over 285.5 passing yards. We believe it makes sense to stick with him on the Over and bettors can be confident in this QB Passing Yards pick.
You can place a bet on Jekail Middlebrook (Virginia) at -114 to surpass 68.5 rushing yards. We're confident in him covering the Player Rushing Yards line and hitting our Over bet.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Same Game Parlay Pick
We’ve loaded up a same game parlay with the combined picks of SMU -9.5, Under 52.5 and Kevin Jennings (SMU) to go Over 285.5 passing yards.
A football same game parlay is a single event wager where you make predictions that are going to happen in a particular game. Should a bettor get these picks correct, then they can achieve a big return from a small stake.
Correct Score Prediction
17
-
31
SMU
For those looking to get more bang for their buck, consider a correct score wager on the Mustangs. Backing them to win 31-17 means you can land a potential monster return.
Virginia vs SMU Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
With the sportsbooks giving them a 78% probability of winning this college game, SMU might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their -357 Moneyline betting odds. The market suggests that Virginia are least likely to win at +280.
9.5 is the spread and 52.5 is the total points line. There are many ways to wager on football including the Totals. Those that want to back Under 52.5 can find odds of -122 available.
If you’re getting ready to place a college football bet, head over to one of the top betting apps and explore the wide variety of game lines and team props. Take your time to spot the most appealing opportunities.
Receiving Yards
Rushing Yards
Passing Yards
SMU Racking Up the Home Wins
SMU have stacked up seven straight victories at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. They have nine wins and one loss in the last 10 games at home, averaging 36.90 points scored and 17.10 points allowed.
Virginia have six wins and four losses in the last 10 games on the road, scoring 21.80 points per contest and conceding 25.20.
| Last 10 Games | W-L | P | PF | PA | O52.5 | U52.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SMU Home Stats |
9-1 | 54.00 | 36.90 | 17.10 | 4 | 6 | |
 Virginia Away Stats |
6-4 | 47.00 | 21.80 | 25.20 | 3 | 7 | |
- W-L = Wins-Losses
- P = Avg. Points
- PF = Avg. Points For
- PA = Avg. Points Against
- O52.5 = Games Over 52.5 Points
- U52.5 = Games Under 52.5 Points
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Virginia Cavaliers Stats
SMU Stats
- 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
- 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- +9.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
- +9.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games on the road
- -9.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
- -9.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 46.40 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 47.00 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 52.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
- Over 52.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 29.10 pts and allowed 17.30 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 21.80 pts and allowed 25.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 55.20 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 53.90 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 52.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
- Over 52.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 34.10 pts and allowed 21.10 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 35.50 pts and allowed 18.40 pts in the last 10 home games
| Atlantic Coast | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami
|
5 | 0 | 248 | 49 | 199 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 5W |
California
|
3 | 3 | 160 | 153 | 7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1W |
North Carolina
|
3 | 2 | 117 | 95 | 22 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1W |
Wake Forest
|
5 | 1 | 221 | 129 | 92 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 3W |
|
SMU
|
4 | 1 | 173 | 115 | 58 | 3-0 | 1-1 | 2W |
|
Virginia
|
4 | 2 | 197 | 115 | 82 | 4-1 | 0-1 | 1W |
Pittsburgh
|
5 | 1 | 209 | 88 | 121 | 4-1 | 1-0 | 1L |
Louisville
|
3 | 3 | 237 | 166 | 71 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 1W |
Duke
|
4 | 1 | 170 | 72 | 98 | 3-0 | 1-1 | 1L |
Georgia Tech
|
2 | 3 | 136 | 129 | 7 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 1W |
Virginia Tech
|
4 | 2 | 226 | 124 | 102 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2L |
Florida State
|
3 | 3 | 186 | 152 | 34 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 1L |
NC State
|
3 | 3 | 198 | 166 | 32 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 1L |
Stanford
|
2 | 4 | 94 | 249 | -155 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 2L |
Clemson
|
3 | 2 | 97 | 129 | -32 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 1L |
Boston College
|
2 | 3 | 95 | 117 | -22 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 2L |
Syracuse
|
2 | 3 | 164 | 120 | 44 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1L |
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