Patriots vs Bills Prediction, Picks & Odds | 04 Oct 2026

Patriots vs Bills Predictions

Best Bet

Under 49.5 Points @ -105

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When the Bills meet the Patriots, we’re not sure that the total points will go over the line. Based on this prediction, you can land odds of -105 for Under 49.5 and this looks worth taking.

We've covered Patriots vs Bills across several markets, including our Best Bet, Player Props, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Prediction. Read on for detailed analysis of each pick.

Patriots vs Bills Preview

The New England Patriots take on the Buffalo Bills in a Week 4 matchup at Highmark Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, October 4.

An AFC East rivalry brings Drake Maye and Josh Allen together in Buffalo, with New England facing an important divisional road test against one of the conference’s established powers. The Patriots’ acquisition of A.J. Brown added star power to their offense, although his confirmed high-ankle sprain means Maye must tackle this assignment without his marquee offseason addition.

The New England Patriots are 1-2 after suffering their second straight road loss, falling 35-6 to the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. New England finished with 317 total yards, including 234 passing and 83 rushing, while recording 17 first downs and failing to score a touchdown.

Drake Maye completed 14-of-25 passes for 199 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing four times for 18 yards. Mack Hollins led New England through the air with six catches for 87 yards, while TreVeyon Henderson had a team-high 23 rushing yards on eight carries.

The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 after earning their third straight win with a 24-16 home victory over the Los Angeles Chargers at Highmark Stadium. Buffalo finished with 350 total yards, including 174 passing and 176 rushing, while recording 22 first downs and scoring three touchdowns.

Josh Allen completed 16-of-26 passes for 204 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions, but made his biggest impact on the ground with two rushing touchdowns. James Cook led Buffalo with 24 carries for 154 yards and a touchdown, helping the Bills produce 176 rushing yards as a team.

H2H: Bills Have Won 7 of the Last 10 Meetings

The Bills came out on top when these teams last met in December 2025, earning a 35-31 road victory over the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Buffalo has won seven of the last 10 meetings between the AFC East rivals.

Quarterbacks

Drake Maye

231.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Josh Allen

242.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Best Bet

Play the Unders at -105 when these NFL teams take to the field. The 49.5 points line looks plenty big enough and we’re not sure the pair will combine to get this total.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction:

• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 8 Patriots games.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in 16 of the last 20 Patriots games.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Bills games at home.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in 11 of the last 20 Bills games.

We’re always on top of team news and when combined with recent form, it helps us uncover the best value. Our NFL handicappers also take a data-led approach, using key stats to back every pick.

Under 49.5 Probability

The best betting apps are estimating that there is a 51.3% likelihood of this pick winning. However, our analysts have this number between 55-60% based on their in-depth research. This wager can therefore be backed with confidence.

Those looking for bigger odds can include an Under selection with other picks when they place a Bet Builder. A bigger potential payout could be on the cards with this wager.

Before your next bet, explore our betting offers guide filled with top bonuses, the latest promotions, and free bet deals.

Under 49.5 Points @ -105 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Josh Allen Under 242.5 Passing Yards -114

Josh Allen (Bills) is priced at -114 to have less than 242.5 passing yards. Considering all factors, we’re confident he’ll fall short of the QB Passing Yards line.

Latest Josh Allen Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

-130

First

+550

Passing Yards

Over 242.5

-114

Under 242.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 31.5

-114

Under 31.5

-114

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Dalton Kincaid Under 49.5 Receiving Yards -114

You can place a bet on Dalton Kincaid (Pats) at -114 to end with fewer than 49.5 receiving yards. There’s a strong case for opting for him to fall short of the required total in the Player Receiving Yards market.

Latest Dalton Kincaid Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+165

First

+1000

Receiving Yards

Over 47.5

-114

Under 47.5

-114

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Patriots 14 - 30 Bills

There are many different ways to back the Bills on the correct score betting and something like 30-14 in their favor might be along the right lines at huge odds.

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Patriots vs Bills Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With a 77% chance of securing victory, Buffalo Bills are favorites for this game and the sportsbooks have them at betting odds of -333. New England is regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back the Patriots at +270.

The spread currently stands at 6.5 and the total points line is 49.5. There are many ways to bet on the NFL including the Totals. There’s the chance to back Under 49.5 at -110.

There’s a wide variety of game lines and team props available and we recommend checking out the best NFL betting sites to find the markets that align with your take on the matchup.

Moneyline

Patriots

+270

Bills

-333

Point Spread

Patriots +6.5

-100

Bills -6.5

-122

Total Points

Under 49.5

-110

Over 49.5

-110

There is -130 available that James Cook scores a touchdown anytime. If you’re interested in the favorite to score the first TD, then you are able to secure +500.

Touchdown

James Cook (Bills)

First TD

+500

Anytime TD

-130

Josh Allen (Bills)

First TD

+550

Anytime TD

-130

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+150

DJ Moore (Bills)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+155

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+165

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+210

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+240

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+260

Romeo Doubs (Patriots)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+280

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+290

Keon Coleman (Bills)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+390

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+400

Drake Maye (Patriots)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+480

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+600

Dawson Knox (Bills)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+600

Ty Johnson (Bills)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+550

Skyler Bell (Bills)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+1000

Jackson Hawes (Bills)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+1000

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+850

Eli Raridon (Patriots)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+900

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1800

Corey Kiner (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Tanner Arkin (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Ray Davis (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1600

Greg Dortch (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Reggie Gilliam (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Cameron Latu (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3300

Keleki Latu (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Receiving Yards

DJ Moore (Bills)

Over 49.5

-114

Under 49.5

-114

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

Over 47.5

-114

Under 47.5

-114

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

Over 42.5

-114

Under 42.5

-114

Romeo Doubs (Patriots)

Over 39.5

-114

Under 39.5

-114

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

Over 38.5

-114

Under 38.5

-114

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 30.5

-114

Under 30.5

-114

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

Over 30.5

-114

Under 30.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 17.5

-114

Under 17.5

-114

Keon Coleman (Bills)

Over 12.5

-114

Under 12.5

-114

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

Over 12.5

-114

Under 12.5

-114

Ty Johnson (Bills)

Over 11.5

-114

Under 11.5

-114

Dawson Knox (Bills)

Over 9.5

-114

Under 9.5

-114

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

James Cook (Bills)

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

Rushing Yards

James Cook (Bills)

Over 84.5

-114

Under 84.5

-114

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 39.5

-114

Under 39.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 32.5

-114

Under 32.5

-114

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 31.5

-114

Under 31.5

-114

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 26.5

-114

Under 26.5

-114

Ty Johnson (Bills)

Over 4.5

-114

Under 4.5

-114

Passing Yards

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 242.5

-114

Under 242.5

-114

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 231.5

-114

Under 231.5

-114

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Bills Riding Momentum at Home

The Bills have chalked up three straight victories at Highmark Stadium. Buffalo has a 8-2 record in their last 10 home games, posting 30.50 points per contest while yielding 21.80.

The Pats are 8-2 in their last 10 games away from home, scoring 22.90 points per contest and conceding 18.40.

The Pats earned a 23-20 win against the Bills in the teams’ last meeting at Highmark Stadium. Across 8 head-to-head clashes at Highmark Stadium, the Bills have posted five victories, while the Pats have managed three.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O49.5	U49.5
Bills Home Stats		8-2	52.30	30.50	21.80	5	5
Patriots Away Stats		8-2	41.30	22.90	18.40	3	7

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O49.5 = Games Over 49.5 Points
• U49.5 = Games Under 49.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New England Patriots Stats

Buffalo Bills Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• +6.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -6.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 36.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 41.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 49.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 21.10 pts and allowed 15.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 22.90 pts and allowed 18.40 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 54.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 52.30 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 49.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 30.20 pts and allowed 24.10 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 30.50 pts and allowed 21.80 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 343.70 Yds. Allowed 261.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 127.60 Yds. Allowed 107.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 216.10 Yds. Allowed 153.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.50 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 0.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 0.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.70. Allowed 16.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.80. Committed by opponents 1.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 4.20. Committed by opponents 5.50
• Penalty Yards: Lost 38.40 Yds. Gained 42.80 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 381.90 Yds. Allowed 312.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 157.30 Yds. Allowed 116.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 224.60 Yds. Allowed 195.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.90 TD. Allowed 2.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.60 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 23.40. Allowed 19.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.80. Committed by opponents 5.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 51.20 Yds. Gained 44.60 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 357.80 Yds. Allowed 301.00 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 115.90 Yds. Allowed 111.10 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 241.90 Yds. Allowed 189.90 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.90. Allowed 18.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 1.30
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.70. Committed by opponents 6.50
• Penalty Yards: Lost 48.80 Yds. Gained 51.70 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 391.00 Yds. Allowed 293.70 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 157.10 Yds. Allowed 108.10 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 233.90 Yds. Allowed 185.60 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 4.10 TD. Allowed 2.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 23.80. Allowed 18.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.40. Committed by opponents 0.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.50. Committed by opponents 5.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 53.50 Yds. Gained 44.70 Yds

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