Bills vs Rams Prediction, Picks & Odds | 12 Oct 2026

Bills vs Rams Predictions

Best Bet

Under 54.5 Points @ -110

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There’s every chance that the total won’t be as high as 54.5, so we’re prepared to take the -110 that the Rams and the Bills go under the line.

Our betting picks for Bills vs Rams cover our Best Bet, Player Props, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Prediction. Scroll down for a detailed breakdown of each play.

Bills vs Rams Preview

The Buffalo Bills square off against the Los Angeles Rams in this Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup at SoFi Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 20:15 on Monday, October 12.

Two of the NFL's biggest quarterback stars take center stage as Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford lead teams with serious championship ambitions. The Bills bring one of the league's most dangerous offenses, while Sean McVay's Rams are trying to keep pace in a competitive NFC West. This is a heavyweight interconference matchup with plenty of national appeal.

The Bills enter Week 5 with a 3-1 record after suffering their first defeat of the season, falling 29-26 to the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. Buffalo generated 340 yards of total offense, including 249 net passing yards and 91 rushing yards. The Bills recorded 19 first downs and scored three touchdowns, but surrendered a late go-ahead touchdown after taking a 26-21 lead in the fourth quarter.

Josh Allen completed 23 of 33 passes for 253 yards, one touchdown and one interception, while also scoring on a two-yard rushing attempt. Keon Coleman led Buffalo's receiving attack with 116 yards and a 34-yard touchdown reception, while James Cook rushed for 75 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Allen's final possession ended with an interception, allowing New England to run out the clock.

The Rams improved to 2-2 with a 24-20 road victory over the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Los Angeles accumulated 415 yards of total offense, comprising 309 net passing yards and 106 rushing yards. The Rams recorded 26 first downs and scored three touchdowns, overcoming a 20-10 halftime deficit with 14 unanswered fourth-quarter points to secure the comeback victory.

Matthew Stafford completed 32 of 51 passes for 317 yards, throwing two interceptions without a touchdown pass. Kyren Williams delivered 147 yards from scrimmage, rushing 16 times for 80 yards and two touchdowns while catching 10 passes for 67 yards. Puka Nacua added nine receptions for 125 yards, while Williams scored both of the Rams' fourth-quarter touchdowns to complete the comeback.

H2H: Bills Have Won Three of Last Four Meetings

The Rams won the most recent meeting with the Bills, securing a 44-42 home victory at SoFi Stadium in December 2024. Buffalo had won the previous three encounters, including a 31-10 road victory in September 2022 and a 35-32 home win in September 2020. The Bills have won three of the last four meetings.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen

244.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Matthew Stafford

278.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Best Bet

Let’s go Under the 54.5 points total as we think this number is unlikely to be reached. The two NFL teams might lack the combined scoring power and -110 can be backed.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction:

• The 54.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Bills games on the road.
• The 54.5 line hasn’t been covered in 14 of the last 20 Bills games on the road.
• The 54.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Rams games at home.
• The 54.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 4 Rams games this season.
• The 54.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Rams games at home.

It’s important to know which players are unavailable for the upcoming action along with the current form of each franchise. If you're after stats, you're in the right place because they form the foundation of our NFL picks.

Under 54.5 Probability

According to the top sportsbooks, there’s a 52.4% likelihood of our pick landing a return. After careful examination, our analysts calculate this probability to be somewhere between 55-60%. It's therefore regarded as a value wager.

It’s all about getting the best odds and one way of maximising your Unders bet is by combining it with the winner on the Result & Total lines.

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Under 54.5 Points @ -110 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Oct 11, 02:25). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Davante Adams Anytime TD -105

The odds for Davante Adams (Rams) to make it to the end zone are -105. Based on all the evidence, we're happy to back him to punch it in on the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.

Latest Davante Adams Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

-105

First

+900

Receiving Yards

Over 62.5

-114

Under 62.5

-114

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Matthew Stafford Under 278.5 Passing Yards -114

Matthew Stafford (Rams) is available at -114 to finish with fewer than 278.5 passing yards. He may fall short of the QB Passing Yards line, making this prop bet a strong pick.

Latest Matthew Stafford Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+1600

First

+8000

Passing Yards

Over 278.5

-114

Under 278.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 1.5

+102

Under 1.5

-132

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Bills 27 - 23 Rams

We’re expecting a close matchup so it might be worth going for the Bills to win by a 27-23 scoreline. You can get a huge price and we should hopefully get a run for our money.

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Bills vs Rams Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The Los Angeles Rams odds have been priced up by the sportsbooks and they are -179 betting favorites to land victory in this game which means a 64% chance of winning. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +150 about the Bills.

The spread is 3.5 and the total points line is currently 54.5. Having a wager on the Totals is one of the most popular NFL bets. Those that want to back Under 54.5 can find odds of -110 available.

National Football League fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of game lines and team props which are available for every game on the coupon. Visit the top betting apps and find the best value wagers.

Moneyline

Bills

+150

Rams

-179

Point Spread

Bills +3.5

-118

Rams -3.5

-104

Total Points

Under 54.5

-110

Over 54.5

-110

Those interested in Kyren Williams to score a touchdown at anytime are able to get -179. There is an opportunity to back the favorite to get the first TD at odds of +500.

Touchdown

Kyren Williams (Rams)

First TD

+500

Anytime TD

-179

James Cook (Bills)

First TD

+550

Anytime TD

-125

Puka Nacua (Rams)

First TD

+700

Anytime TD

-130

Josh Allen (Bills)

First TD

+700

Anytime TD

-125

Davante Adams (Rams)

First TD

+900

Anytime TD

-105

Tyler Higbee (Rams)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+185

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+200

Blake Corum (Rams)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+250

Keon Coleman (Bills)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+240

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+250

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+440

Ty Johnson (Bills)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+480

Dawson Knox (Bills)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+550

Davis Allen (Rams)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+550

Konata Mumpfield (Rams)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+650

Jordan Whittington (Rams)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+800

Jackson Hawes (Bills)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+950

Tutu Atwell (Rams)

First TD

+6500

Anytime TD

+1100

Matthew Stafford (Rams)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1600

Ray Davis (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1800

Keleki Latu (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Dean Connors (Rams)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Receiving Yards

Puka Nacua (Rams)

Over 92.5

-114

Under 92.5

-114

Davante Adams (Rams)

Over 62.5

-114

Under 62.5

-114

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

Over 56.5

-114

Under 56.5

-114

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

Over 45.5

-114

Under 45.5

-114

Keon Coleman (Bills)

Over 36.5

-114

Under 36.5

-114

Tyler Higbee (Rams)

Over 23.5

-114

Under 23.5

-114

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

Over 21.5

-114

Under 21.5

-114

Kyren Williams (Rams)

Over 19.5

-114

Under 19.5

-114

Colby Parkinson (Rams)

Over 16.5

-114

Under 16.5

-114

Dawson Knox (Bills)

Over 11.5

-114

Under 11.5

-114

Ty Johnson (Bills)

Over 11.5

-114

Under 11.5

-114

James Cook (Bills)

Over 9.5

-114

Under 9.5

-114

Konata Mumpfield (Rams)

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

Jordan Whittington (Rams)

Over 5.5

-114

Under 5.5

-114

Rushing Yards

James Cook (Bills)

Over 75.5

-114

Under 75.5

-114

Kyren Williams (Rams)

Over 67.5

-114

Under 67.5

-114

Blake Corum (Rams)

Over 36.5

-114

Under 36.5

-114

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 36.5

-114

Under 36.5

-114

Matthew Stafford (Rams)

Over 1.5

+102

Under 1.5

-132

Passing Yards

Matthew Stafford (Rams)

Over 278.5

-114

Under 278.5

-114

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 244.5

-114

Under 244.5

-114

Rams Looking to Keep Rolling at Home

The Rams have put together six straight wins at SoFi Stadium. Los Angeles has gone 8-2 across their last 10 home games, averaging 28.40 points on offense and surrendering 18.10 on defense.

The Bills have gone 6-4 across their last 10 road games, putting up 26.30 points on average and giving up 23.20.

The Rams beat the Bills 44-42 when they last met at SoFi Stadium.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O54.5	U54.5
Rams Home Stats		8-2	46.50	28.40	18.10	3	7
Bills Away Stats		6-4	49.50	26.30	23.20	3	7

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O54.5 = Games Over 54.5 Points
• U54.5 = Games Under 54.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Buffalo Bills Stats

Los Angeles Rams Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in the last 10 games
• +3.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -3.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 52.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 49.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 54.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 54.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 28.90 pts and allowed 23.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 26.30 pts and allowed 23.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 51.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 44.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 54.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 54.5 at Home: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 26.40 pts and allowed 24.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 26.60 pts and allowed 17.80 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 374.30 Yds. Allowed 318.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 148.10 Yds. Allowed 124.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 226.20 Yds. Allowed 194.30 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.70 TD. Allowed 2.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 23.10. Allowed 19.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.40. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.60. Committed by opponents 5.40
• Penalty Yards: Lost 47.50 Yds. Gained 45.10 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 423.70 Yds. Allowed 321.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 123.00 Yds. Allowed 119.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 300.70 Yds. Allowed 201.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.00 TD. Allowed 2.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.40 TD. Allowed 0.60 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.60. Allowed 18.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 1.30
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.10. Committed by opponents 5.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 51.10 Yds. Gained 37.20 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 358.10 Yds. Allowed 325.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 153.80 Yds. Allowed 144.10 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 204.30 Yds. Allowed 181.10 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.20 TD. Allowed 2.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.60. Allowed 19.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.60. Committed by opponents 1.50
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.30. Committed by opponents 4.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 53.20 Yds. Gained 44.20 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 391.90 Yds. Allowed 311.00 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 119.90 Yds. Allowed 96.30 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 272.00 Yds. Allowed 214.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.40 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 0.30 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 2.20 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.40. Allowed 18.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.70
• Total Penalties: Committed 4.80. Committed by opponents 5.80
• Penalty Yards: Lost 38.70 Yds. Gained 41.30 Yds

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